Risk-based Management of Pipeline and Safety Program
| November 17, 2008 |
| 1:00pm |
Coffee & Registration |
| 1:30-4:30pm |
Course |
| November 18-20, 2008 |
| 8:00am-4:30pm |
Course |
| November 21, 2008 |
|
| 8:00am-4:00pm |
Course |
DAY 1
General Introduction
Refresher on probability and statistics methods (tailored to the needs of the course)
- Analyzing data correctly (if you can’t measure it, you can’t improve it)
- Two major challenges in statistics
- Three rules of statistics
- Measures of center and spread
- Histograms and Distributions
- Two principles of statistics (Inference and Randomness)
- Correlation and Regression
- Elements of sampling theory
Basics of the engineering approach to pipeline integrity, remaining life, reliability and safety
- Definitions of a pipeline from the stand point of risk
- GPS/GIS technology for mapping and 3D description of pipelines
- Concept of pipeline integrity / limit states
- Structural reliability of pipelines
- Pipeline defects and remaining life
- Pipeline performance risk; definition of risk, components of risk (probability and consequences of failure)
- Quantitative, perceptional, potential, individual, collective, societal, territorial risks
- Types of oil/gas pipeline catastrophe (fire, explosion, soil/water contamination, air pollution, injuries/fatalities)
- Conditional probability of pipeline incident and how to calculate it
- Cost of life/injury, environment contamination, property and profit losses, company image damage
- Risk based management of pipeline assets
- Ethics of the risk concept and the life quality index (LQI)
DAY 2
Oil/gas pipeline safety rules
- Pipeline integrity management in HCAs (current state-of-the-art).
- Comprehensive digest of API 1160, ASME B31.8S 2001 49 CFR 192, 65 CFR 2136
Defects: main localities of pipeline failures and loss of integrity.
- Types and classification of pipeline defects
Case Study # 1: Full reliability analysis of an oil pipeline in severe environment
Computer centered maintenance management systems (CCMMS) for pipelines
- Current tendencies in computer aided pipeline maintenance management
- Examples of CCMMS
Demo: Risk based management of pipeline integrity and safety using software PRIMA
DAY 3
Basics of oil/gas pipeline diagnostics
- In-line inspection (ILI)—most important single method of pipeline diagnostics. API 1163, ASNT ILI PQ 2003, NACE RP 0102
- Contemporary methods of in-line inspection
- Four stages of ILI technology
- Three possible outcomes of ILI
- Current level of ILI consistency of defect detection, positioning, and sizing
- Seven basic metrics of ILI tool and pig run quality
- Flow chart of holistic analysis of ILI data
Optimizing monitoring and maintenance
- Basics of pipeline monitoring
- Typical pipeline maintenance optimization problems
- Optimal cessation of pipeline performance
- Optimal interval between inspections
- Optimal times for pipeline repair
Risk-based maintenance management
- Fitness-for-purpose assessment
Pipeline operation risk assessment flow chart
Prioritization of pipeline segments for maintenance/repair/rehabilitation
Workshop # 1: Prioritizing pipeline segments for repair/rehabilitation based on the corporate evaluation criteria—The Net Present Value (NPV)
DAY 4
Case Study # 2: Optimal cessation of pipeline performance (optimal time of repair)
How to assess the risk of pipeline performance
- Qualitative methods of risk evaluation. Basics of the score methods (USA, Russia, UK, et al.)
- Semi-quantitative methods of risk evaluation
- Quantitative engineering methods for evaluating components of industrial risk; cost of life/limb, environmental losses, property damage
- Current tendencies in risk analysis and land using policies
- Basics of risk assessment using computer simulation methods
- Real case studies of oil and gas pipeline operational risk
Workshop # 2: Quantitative assessment of individual and collective risk along a pipeline
DAY 5
Role of the human factor
- Existing approaches to quantitative assessment of human factor/errors
- Practical methods of assessing the influence of human errors on pipeline safety and reliability
- Means and methods of mitigating the probability and consequences of a terrorist attack on an oil/gas pipeline
Workshop # 3. Real case studies—selecting additional safety measures, that maximize reduction of pipeline incident probability at a given amount of means
Conclusions and Perspectives
|
