Clarion Technical Conferences

Weibull-Log Normal Analysis Workshop
March 14-16, 2005

Workshop Schedule

March 14, 2005
7:30am Registration
8:00am-4:00pm Workshop

March 15, 2005
8:00am-4:30pm Workshop

March 16, 2005
8:00am-4:00pm Workshop

RMS (Reliability-Maintainability-Safety-Supportability) engineering is emerging as the newest discipline in product development due to new credible, accurate, quantitative methods. Weibull Analysis is foremost among these new tools. New and advanced Weibull techniques are a significant improvement over the original Weibull approach. They yield useful results even with extremely small samples and with data that has deficiencies. Special methods developed for these data problems, such as Weibayes, are presented with actual case studies. Inspection data will be treated with both interval and probit analysis. The latest techniques in WinSMITHTM Weibull for risk forecasts with renewal and optimal component replacement will be illustrated with case studies. Students are fully qualified to conduct Weibull Analysis at workshop completion.

Benefits of Attending

By attending this workshop, you will be able to use Weibull's unique capabilities to:

Analyze design, development, production, and service failures
Model product lifetime and reliability
Evaluate calibration & maintainability plans
Analyze inspection data
Reduce test substantiation, time and costs

Who Should Attend

Engineers responsible for reliability, safety, supportability, maintainability, materials, warranties, life cycle cost, design, structures, instrumentation and logistics will find these Weibull techniques extremely useful.

Prerequisites

An engineering undergraduate degree in any discipline would be beneficial.

Text & Software Included

Each attendee will receive the entire SuperSMITHTM package, a $960 value. SuperSMITH contains: the New Weibull Handbook, written by Dr. Robert B. Abernethy, along with classwork, answers, and references; the latest version of WinSMITHTMWeibull and WinSMITHTMVisual software which is used in the workshop; and the Play-Time Tutorial Software Workbook. This state-of-the art, WindowsTM software includes Normal & Log Normal Analysis and allows the student much more time for actual hands-on PC experience, interpreting data of all types. There are many new features. This software is very "user friendly" and provides: automatic iteration of to, cross-plotting of up to ten data sets, MLE and rank regression solutions, labels, test substantiation design, plot expansion and shrinkage, inspection data analysis, confidence bounds with censored data, reliability prediction with confidence level, optimal component replacement intervals, future failure predictions with & without renewals, distribution analysis, etc. The students will exercise all the software systems to gain experience with all types of problems using a computer tutorial. They will also analyze data generated from class fatigue experiments and data they bring to class from their home organization.

Weibull Experiments

The students will rupture wire samples in low cycle fatigue and analyze the data using WinSMITHTMWeibull software.

Duane-AMSAA

Reliability growth modeling (Duane-AMSAA) is also presented on the third day. It is useful for three purposes: (l) tracking repairable systems, (2) tracking component development, and (3) analyzing systems where the early portion of the data is missing. An example of the last is electrical power cables buried decades ago by utilities that did not keep failure data in the early years. It is a good technique for analyzing some forms of "dirty" data. The newest application, renewal/repairable system analysis, has some advantages and disadvantages over Monte Carlo methods. WinSmithTMVisual performs the Duane-AMSAA calculations and provides plots of the results.

Workshop Content

The Weibull, the Poisson, Log Normal, Exponential and Binomial, the distributions that form the basis for RMS Engineering, are covered. The third day is devoted to confidence intervals, RMS models, and reliability growth analysis. Class work is used to reinforce key concepts. Lectures are based on actual case studies. The students use personal computers on the second and third day to analyze dozens of Weibull and Log Normal problems. The students will be fully capable of performing basic and advanced RMS Engineering analysis with their own software on completion of the workshop.

DAY 1 - Undergraduate Weibull Analysis
March 14, 2005

7:30am Registration
8:00am-4:30pm workshop

Background, Development & Introduction - 23-Minute Video Short Course
How to do Weibull Analysis
Interpretation of Good Weibulls - 2 & 3 Parameter
Are two Weibull datasets significantly different?
Interpretation of Bad Weibulls - Cusps, Dog Legs, Curves, To, Log Normal
Failure Predictions and Weibull Risk Analysis: How Many Failures Will There be in the Next year, Five Years? With and Without Parts Replacement?
Case Studies, Customer Usage, Maintenance Planning, Goodness of Fit with the New Critical Correlation Coefficients, Failure Forecasting
Weibull Experiments, Wire Rupture, Torsion, LCF, Accelerated Testing, Classwork Problems and Solutions

DAY 2 - Postgraduate Weibull Analysis
March 15, 2005

8:00am-4:30pm

Maximum Likelihood Weibull Theory and Application
WeiBayes Analysis. When Weibulls are Impossible or Deficient Substantiation Tests. Have We Fixed the Problem? Zero-Failures Testing, Sudden Death Tests
Dauser Shift, Suspension Times are Unknown, Warranty Analysis
Rank Regression vs. Maximum Likelihood, When Should I Use RR vs. MLE, Advantages & Disadvantages?
Extremely Small Samples Analysis, What are the Risks and Biases?
Log Normal Analysis, both Interval and Probit Methods
Suspension and Sample Size Effects on Uncertainty
Predicting Future Failures with and without Renewals
One Failure Weibull Case Study
An Introduction to WinSMITHTM Software, Features, Input, Analysis, Output
Summary of Weibull Methods
Class Work Problems
Experimental Wire Data Distribution Analysis
Optimal Replacement Intervals, Block Replacement
"Playtime With SuperSMITHTM" Tutorial, Hands-On Computer Experience with All Kinds of Problems, Students May Bring Their Own Data for Analysis on PC Computers
Review and Discussion of Class Work and Playtime Exercises

DAY 3 - Confidence Intervals and System Models
March 16, 2005

8:00am-3:00pm

Confidence Intervals, "The Good, the Bad and the Complicated"
Comparing Designs
The Binomial & Poisson, Discrete Distributions Related to the Weibull and Useful for RMS & Quality Control Engineering, Case Studies, Nomograms, the Thorndike Chart
Duane-AMSAA Reliability Growth Modeling - New Useful Technology for Tracking Development Testing
The Exponential Related to the Poisson and the Weibull, Assumptions and Applications
Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis (Now Included in WinSMITHTM Weibull)
Duane-AMSAA Employed for Analyzing Renewal-Repairable Systems
System Models
Classwork
Complete "Playtime With SuperSMITHTM"
"PhD Oral Examination"

CLARION
3401 Louisiana Street
Suite 255
Houston, Texas 77002
Tel. +1 (713) 521-5929 Fax +1 (713) 521-9255

Weibull Analysis Workshop and Life Cycle Costing Course